POTENTIAL AND KEY BARRIERS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIC ANIMAL HUSBANDRY IN KAZAKHSTAN: AN INTEGRATED SPATIAL AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

Abstract

This study develops a reproducible spatial and economic framework for prioritising the transition of Kazakhstan livestock farms to organic production. Methods. A multi-criteria index combines four blocks: spatial and environmental suitability, production readiness, financial viability, and behavioural and institutional readiness. Indicators are normalised to a 0–1 scale, aggregated with equal block weights, and constrained by a minimum environmental score of 0.55. Four five-year scenarios are compared: baseline, pasture expansion, shelterbelt conservation, and an integrated organic system. National pasture statistics and legal and sectoral sources provide the contextual baseline; scenario parameters are model assumptions rather than observed farm outcomes. Results. The model produces index values of 0.50, 0.53, 0.57, and 0.73, respectively. Pasture expansion fails the environmental threshold despite higher production and financial scores. The integrated scenario remains first under alternative weights and input perturbations. Conclusion. Expansion of grazing area alone is insufficient. Priority should be given to farms and districts where controlled grazing, water access, shelterbelt protection, traceability, certified feed, veterinary services, processing, and market access can be implemented as one value chain. Farm-level geospatial, production, financial, and survey data are required before investment decisions.